Analysis: Succession in focus but Cambodia strongman staying put

Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen waves to the media as he arrives for the ASEAN - China summit, happening on the sides of the 17th ASEAN Summit in Hanoi October 29, 2010. The 17th ASEAN summit runs from October 28 to 30.

Credit: Reuters/Kham

By Prak Chan Thul

PHNOM PENH | Sun Jan 23, 2011 11:23pm EST

PHNOM PENH (Reuters) - When a young soldier was made a two-star general and infantry commander this month at the age of only 33, some in Cambodia saw a political dynasty taking shape.

The rapid rise of Major-General Hun Manet has drawn attention to a topic rarely discussed in Cambodia: who will succeed his father, long-serving Prime Minister Hun Sen.

Comparisons have been made between the rise of Hun Manet and that of Kim Jong-un, the son of ailing North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, promoted from obscurity in September to be a general and politburo member in what was seen as the unveiling of a successor.

But analysts say the prospect of Hun Sen stepping aside is inconceivable right now and it's too soon to make that link. Rather they see Hun Manet's promotion as a sign of both the deep-rooted nepotism in Cambodia and the unrelenting efforts of Hun Sen to consolidate power for many years to come.

"I'd say Hun Sen's plan is to hold on in office for as long as he can and give his son a chance to amass as much power in the military as possible," said Tony Kevin, an Australian academic and former ambassador to Cambodia in the 1990s.

"He's pushing 60, and for a leader in Asia, that's pretty young, really. With his son as a senior military general, he has an insurance policy and it's understandable he'd want that. But if this is part of a dynastic plan -- it's too soon to tell now."

Some political analysts in Cambodia believe Hun Sen, a former Khmer Rouge guerrilla, is privately concerned that a challenge to his 26-year rule could one day emerge, not from his political opponents but from within his Cambodian People's Party (CPP) or among a powerful and growing crop of local tycoons.

FIRM HAND

Hun Sen's firm hand and pro-business policies are credited with attracting foreign investment that has put Cambodia on a steady course of growth and stability after decades of brutal civil war turned the former French colony into a failed state.

His successful blend of populism, nationalism and cronyism has earned him the overwhelming support of the electorate and kept business elites onside, but analysts say any shift in that dynamic could one day lead to his undoing.

Enter Hun Manet, the eldest and most privileged of Hun Sen's six children, whose promotion to a plum military post now makes a coup d'etat against his father seem far less likely.

Hun Manet has kept a low profile since graduating from West Point military academy in the United States and then getting an economics doctorate from Britain's Bristol University -- a far cry from his father's rudimentary education at a rural monastery.

Hun Sen has defended his son's promotion as in accordance with the rules. "He has been military age for 16 years already," he said. "The military is obliged to promote in accordance with its internal framework."

But many in Cambodia think Hun Manet is being groomed to one day take over the reins of power.

"There's an old saying that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely," said Son Soubert, a prominent political commentator and adviser to Cambodia's King Norodom Sihamoni.

Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen waves to the media as he arrives for the ASEAN - China summit, happening on the sides of the 17th ASEAN Summit in Hanoi October 29, 2010. The 17th ASEAN summit runs from October 28 to 30. Credit: Reuters/Kham By Prak Chan Thul PHNOM PENH | Sun Jan 23, 2011 11:23pm EST PHNOM PENH (Reuters) - When a young soldier was made a two-star general and infantry commander this month at the age of only 33, some in Cambodia saw a political dynasty taking shape. The rapid rise of Major-General Hun Manet has drawn attention to a topic rarely discussed in Cambodia: who will succeed his father, long-serving Prime Minister Hun Sen. Comparisons have been made between the rise of Hun Manet and that of Kim Jong-un, the son of ailing North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, promoted from obscurity in September to be a general and politburo member in what was seen as the unveiling of a successor. But analysts say the prospect of Hun Sen stepping aside is inconceivable right now and it's too soon to make that link. Rather they see Hun Manet's promotion as a sign of both the deep-rooted nepotism in Cambodia and the unrelenting efforts of Hun Sen to consolidate power for many years to come. "I'd say Hun Sen's plan is to hold on in office for as long as he can and give his son a chance to amass as much power in the military as possible," said Tony Kevin, an Australian academic and former ambassador to Cambodia in the 1990s. "He's pushing 60, and for a leader in Asia, that's pretty young, really. With his son as a senior military general, he has an insurance policy and it's understandable he'd want that. But if this is part of a dynastic plan -- it's too soon to tell now." Some political analysts in Cambodia believe Hun Sen, a former Khmer Rouge guerrilla, is privately concerned that a challenge to his 26-year rule could one day emerge, not from his political opponents but from within his Cambodian People's Party (CPP) or among a powerful and growing crop of local tycoons. FIRM HAND Hun Sen's firm hand and pro-business policies are credited with attracting foreign investment that has put Cambodia on a steady course of growth and stability after decades of brutal civil war turned the former French colony into a failed state. His successful blend of populism, nationalism and cronyism has earned him the overwhelming support of the electorate and kept business elites onside, but analysts say any shift in that dynamic could one day lead to his undoing. Enter Hun Manet, the eldest and most privileged of Hun Sen's six children, whose promotion to a plum military post now makes a coup d'etat against his father seem far less likely. Hun Manet has kept a low profile since graduating from West Point military academy in the United States and then getting an economics doctorate from Britain's Bristol University -- a far cry from his father's rudimentary education at a rural monastery. Hun Sen has defended his son's promotion as in accordance with the rules. "He has been military age for 16 years already," he said. "The military is obliged to promote in accordance with its internal framework." But many in Cambodia think Hun Manet is being groomed to one day take over the reins of power. "There's an old saying that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely," said Son Soubert, a prominent political commentator and adviser to Cambodia's King Norodom Sihamoni.